TAO This Week: $283 and Climbing
TAO is at $283, up 13% from last week's $251. The Covenant exit shakeout that dropped us from $375 in early April is fading in the rearview mirror. 68% of supply is staked. Institutions are still deploying. The recovery is real.
But the interesting story this week isn't price. It's what's happening underneath — at the subnet level.
We Built Something Nobody Else Has
This week we shipped Subnet Liquidation Risk — a real-time deregistration risk monitor for all 128 subnets. Direct from our local subtensor node. No third-party APIs.
Here's what it tracks:
- EMA Alpha Price — the moving average that determines which subnet gets killed next
- Pool TAO Reserve — how much TAO is backing the subnet's alpha token
- Immunity Countdown — how many days of protection a subnet has left
- Liquidation Value — what you'd get back per alpha if the subnet dies today
- TAO Flow — net capital movement. Negative = money leaving
How Subnet Deregistration Actually Works
When all 128 slots are full and someone registers a new subnet, the network kills the subnet with the lowest EMA alpha price. New subnets get an immunity period (~120 days) where they can't be touched.
When a subnet dies:
- The TAO sitting in its liquidity pool gets split pro-rata to all alpha holders
- Your share goes directly to your coldkey — no action needed
- If the pool is drained (low liquidity), you get less back per alpha
Post-halving, this matters more than ever. Half the emissions means pools accumulate TAO slower. Weak subnets bleed out faster.
SN26 Is the #1 Deregistration Target
Right now, SN26 (beqar) has the lowest EMA alpha price on the network at 0.003315. If someone registers a new subnet today, SN26 is the one that gets killed.
| Metric | SN26 |
|---|---|
| EMA Price | 0.003315 (lowest on network) |
| Pool TAO | 7,143 TAO |
| Risk Level | CRITICAL |
| Immune? | No |
If you're holding alpha in SN26, check our liquidation calculator to see what you'd get back.
7 Subnets Lose Immunity This Month
These subnets are about to lose their protection from deregistration. Once immunity expires, they need to maintain a healthy EMA price or risk being the next target.
| Subnet | Days Left | EMA Price |
|---|---|---|
| SN109 | 1.5 days | 0.006038 |
| SN38 | 5.2 days | — |
| SN114 | 9.1 days | 0.011646 |
| SN47 | 13.0 days | — |
| SN15 | 16.7 days | — |
| SN99 | 23.4 days | — |
| SN107 | 29.3 days | 0.035126 |
SN109 is the one to watch. 1.5 days of immunity left. If its EMA price is low enough after immunity expires, it becomes a deregistration candidate immediately.
Top 5 Subnets by Liquidity
The safest subnets from a deregistration standpoint — the most TAO in the pool means the strongest floor.
| Subnet | Pool TAO | EMA Price |
|---|---|---|
| SN64 Chutes | 205,117 | 0.078120 |
| SN4 Targon | 131,635 | 0.056831 |
| SN51 lium.io | 123,931 | 0.062644 |
| SN8 Vanta | 87,780 | 0.035366 |
| SN120 Affine | 83,633 | 0.066456 |
SN64 Chutes continues to dominate with 205K TAO in the pool — nearly double second-place SN4 Targon.
Mining Update: 5 Subnets Rated MINE
Our mineability engine currently rates 5 subnets as MINE — meaning real earning potential for new miners:
- SN72 StreetVision — score 85
- SN83 CliqueAI — score 85
- SN111 oneoneone — score 85
- SN123 MANTIS — score 68
- SN32 ItsAI — score 65
9 additional subnets are rated CAUTION — worth watching but not deploying on yet.
What to Watch This Week
- $300 resistance — TAO touched $293 this weekend. Another push could break through.
- SN109 immunity expiring — 1.5 days. Will it survive or become the next target?
- Conviction governance — Phase 2 continues targeting underperforming subnets.
- Subnet expansion to 256 — confirmed in development. More slots = less deregistration pressure.